11 impacts of the 2010 mid-term elections

November 8, 2010

Just my hunches…No particular sequence…impacts of many of these will take effect years from now…

1.)  The dominance of the GOP in state legislature elections will have a significant impact on redrawing congressional districts based on the 2010 Census.  Expect less southern democrats as a result.  Gerrymander will become a household word.

“In gerrymandered election districts, the voters don’t choose their politicians – the politicians choose their voters!”

2.)  When democrats re-take the house, whenever that occurs, there will be an unprecedented number of CBC members as committee chairs.

3.)  The 2010 re-election map for President Obama will focus on the Western State Strategy plus Pennsylvania/Virginia/North Carolina.  The groundwork for this was laid with the 2008 DNC Convention in Denver.  The fight for 270 will rely less and less on the tired narratives of Ohio and Florida.

4.)  Perhaps Stephanie Cutter or Karen Finney will become WH Press Secy.???

5.)  The U.S. will take a more isolationist approach to foreign policy.  Wars and foreign aid cost lots of money.  Tougher to justify during economic hardship in the U.S.  Also, xenophobic rancor seems to be more acceptable than ever.

6.)  Entitlements reform will result in raising the Social Security Age.  Though this probably won’t take effect until 2030.

7.)  There will be more incentives for nuclear power plants; however, less federal incentives for consumer purchase of hybrids and electric cars.

8.)  Political parvenus will continue to dominate the media.  The media will continue to fixate on two of the eight elements of news: conflict & oddity.

9.)  All types of federal appointments will continue to be blocked.

10.)  Spanish-speaking media will become more and more important for federal elections.

11.)  Despite the nearly 14,000 murders annually of Americans by other mostly Christian, English speaking Americans, none of the leaders in Washington will make domestic crime prevention a major priority.  Not to mention the 20,000 plus killed by drunk drivers.  Sad.

***Like everything else on this blog…these views expressed are my own and not necessarily the positions of the DOD or Army…thanks for reading***

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Ideas for the 21st Century Military

December 15, 2008

This fall I was afforded a great opportunity to co-author (views expressed were my own and not DoD…see disclaimer in the “About Me” section) a report on Building the Military for the 21st Century:  New Realities, New Priorities.  I learned a lot in this process and have a better understanding of how Think Tanks are able to influence public discussion and policy action.

The public release of the report included remarks by Rep. John Murtha and Rep. Joe Sestak (both retired military officers); and a panel featuring lead author Lawrence Korb, Senior Fellow at CAP; LTG Stephen Speakes, Army G-8 (Programs Director); and Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Michael Dunn, Air Force Association.

(L-R) Lt. Gen. Speakes, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Dunn, Lawrence J. Korb after panel discussion

(L-R) Lt. Gen. Speakes, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Dunn, Lawrence J. Korb after panel discussion

I encourage you to take a closer look at the report and the fun interactive that was developed by the Center for American Progress editorial team.

There are numerous stories and blogs that are discussing the report and it’s recommendations. You can find blog posts here, here, and here (last link is about our interactive).

Articles here, here, and here.

“It’s said that a nation’s budget reflects its values and its priorities.”
President-elect Barack Obama

“Given that resources are not unlimited, the dynamic of exchanging numbers for capability is perhaps reaching a point of diminishing returns. A given ship or aircraft, no matter how capable or well-equipped, can be in only one place at one time.”
Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates

Other authors included:  Laura Conley, Sean Duggan, Peter Juul
they can be contacted for further information.


Thinking about polling and prediction

October 28, 2008

I have a few theories hunches on polling this cycle…and here’s how I see the final electoral map (Montana is the only true toss-up in my opinion)  OBAMA/BIDEN=326; MCCAIN/PALIN=209; UNKNOWN=3

Myles' final prediction for election night

Myles' final prediction for election night

1.)  Obama is overperforming on some polls because the people who support him are proud to say “Yes, I’m voting for Obama”; McCain supporters probably are less likely to respond at all to pollsters

2.)  Obama is underperforming on some polls because they don’t take in account cell-only voters. I have a detailed post on this subject on my personal blog.

3.)  Obama is underperforming on some polls because they don’t contact newly registered voters and there are numerous data points that indicate the Obama campaign and Democrats have registered millions of voters across the country.

4.)  The “Undecideds” are mostly McCain supporters who don’t want to admit they support McCain.  Therefore, McCain’s numbers will close on election day.

5.)  Obama will win any state he is currently up by +5% (and polling over 50%)

6.)  Mason-Dixon is given too much credit for accurate polling

7.)  Anytime a pundit says, “A democrat hasn’t won here since…” expect Obama to win that state.

Make your own map at Real Clear Politics.


Cellphone-only people strongly support Obama

September 24, 2008

Much debate has been made about Cellphone “only” people and their support for presidential candidates.  Those who live in the Politics 1.0 world tend to believe themes like “Young people don’t vote…cell phone users don’t answer polling questions…cell phone people are the same as land-line users…” Some are even stuck in 2004 and claim that cellphone users and young people were supposed to support Kerry–but they didn’t.

Obama on Cellphone

Obama on Cellphone

Perhaps the cynics and naysayers are correct about 2004.  Meanwhile, the use of cellphones and Web 2.0 has exploded and voters under 30 are far more likely to be in the Cellphone “only” crowd.

New Pew Polling shows Obama leads by 20% among Cellphone “only” voters. According to the Federal Government 15% of U.S. Households are cellphone “only” as of December 2007.  That number certainly has increased by now.  Just think…there are more high school grads; the iPhone, Centro and other phones have made cellphones more popular and in order to save money for the new gadgets people would likely drop the landlines.  Also cellphone coverage in rural areas has significantly increased in the past four years (thanks to all the “deregulators” out there!!).

My Social Media Sensei, Garrett Graff, has an article up this week on the influence of Millennials and the election. A passage:

The 85 million or so “millennials”—those Americans born between 1977 and 1997—are the largest generation in American history, and they’re just beginning to flex their muscle at the voting booth. In 2006, they proved decisive in the Democratic victories of Jim Webb in Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana. It’s a diverse and socially tolerant generation—one out of three millennials is nonwhite, and their views on stem-cell research and gay marriage are nearly the inverse of their conservative “greatest generation” grandparents.

Seeing that polls released on (9/23) indicate that Obama is tied in battleground Virginia, can you see now that his path to victory is a bit more clear?  (especially, when you consider voter registration has increased 200,000 and cell-only voters aren’t usually polled)  Bottomline:  On election night, watch Virginia’s returns…if Obama wins VA, he wins the entire election.

A few interesting blog posts on this topic here, here, and hereNow do you understand why the Obama campaign used the text message to announce Senator Biden as VP choice??? This link has a detailed analysis of the Obama campaign’s text message strategy.

Pew Poll on Cellphone only voters (Sep 08)

Pew Poll on Cellphone "only" voters (Sep '08)


Sensible solutions for the Army major major shortage

September 17, 2008

Heads up…I have a piece coming out soon in the Army Times “Back Talk” section…

…It should generate a good deal of feedback.  I’ll share some of the comments in this blog posting.

I’ve posted about this topic before, however, I conducted a bit more research and was spurred to write because both presidential candidates spoke about the importance of military service during the recent candidates forum.


Obama stage design evokes American history

August 28, 2008
MLK speaking in front of columns...how arrogant? *snark*

MLK speaking in front of columns...how arrogant? *snark*

Tonight is Obama’s big acceptance speech at Invesco Field in Denver.  Video of stage and interview with David Plouffe here.

The naysayers are out in full force chastising his set design. Criticism here, here, and here…one more here.

To me, it is a brilliant move and clear symbolism to evoke memories of Martin Luther King, Jr. and Abraham Lincoln. The imagery communicates a message that the majority of Americans reflect on positively.

MLK delivers I have a dream speech in front of columns

MLK delivers "I have a dream speech" in front of columns

I look forward to the speech.

What’s wrong with trying to replicate images that all American’s hold dear like that of the Lincoln Memorial?  Am I the only one this makes sense too?  Perhaps, it’s just that every move Sen. Obama makes is criticized because it’s new?  Because it goes against conventional wisdom?  Recent history will indicate the Obama team has set new lessons for all leaders–particularly in coalition building, use of new media, and branding.

Happy 45th Anniversary of the “I have a dream speech“!!!  Hopefully Rita & Kevin (I don’t know them) get good seats.  Here is a  photo of them inside the stadium last night.


Biden it is

August 23, 2008

*eats crow*  Yummy!  And I owe my Mom a pair of shoes.  She was right.  Seems like she Moms always is are…

Here’s the VP choice SENATOR JOSEPH ROBINETTE BIDEN, JR.

On June 23, 2008 Senator Biden said:

“Of course [I would say yes],” he said. “If the presidential nominee thought I could help him win — am I going to say to the first African-American candidate about to make history in the world that, ‘No, I will not help you out like you want me to’? Of course . . . I’ll say yes.”

Things you may not know about Sen. Biden:

Read more of Joe Biden on the issues

Joe Biden speaks at the Center for American Progress

Joe Biden speaks at the Center for American Progress