Just my hunches…No particular sequence…impacts of many of these will take effect years from now…
1.) The dominance of the GOP in state legislature elections will have a significant impact on redrawing congressional districts based on the 2010 Census. Expect less southern democrats as a result. Gerrymander will become a household word.
“In gerrymandered election districts, the voters don’t choose their politicians – the politicians choose their voters!”
2.) When democrats re-take the house, whenever that occurs, there will be an unprecedented number of CBC members as committee chairs.
3.) The 2010 re-election map for President Obama will focus on the Western State Strategy plus Pennsylvania/Virginia/North Carolina. The groundwork for this was laid with the 2008 DNC Convention in Denver. The fight for 270 will rely less and less on the tired narratives of Ohio and Florida.
4.) Perhaps Stephanie Cutter or Karen Finney will become WH Press Secy.???
5.) The U.S. will take a more isolationist approach to foreign policy. Wars and foreign aid cost lots of money. Tougher to justify during economic hardship in the U.S. Also, xenophobic rancor seems to be more acceptable than ever.
6.) Entitlements reform will result in raising the Social Security Age. Though this probably won’t take effect until 2030.
7.) There will be more incentives for nuclear power plants; however, less federal incentives for consumer purchase of hybrids and electric cars.
8.) Political parvenus will continue to dominate the media. The media will continue to fixate on two of the eight elements of news: conflict & oddity.
9.) All types of federal appointments will continue to be blocked.
11.) Despite the nearly 14,000 murders annually of Americans by other mostly Christian, English speaking Americans, none of the leaders in Washington will make domestic crime prevention a major priority. Not to mention the 20,000 plus killed by drunk drivers. Sad.
***Like everything else on this blog…these views expressed are my own and not necessarily the positions of the DOD or Army…thanks for reading***
This fall I was afforded a great opportunity to co-author (views expressed were my own and not DoD…see disclaimer in the “About Me” section) a report on Building the Military for the 21st Century: New Realities, New Priorities. I learned a lot in this process and have a better understanding of how Think Tanks are able to influence public discussion and policy action.
The public release of the report included remarks by Rep. John Murtha and Rep. Joe Sestak (both retired military officers); and a panel featuring lead author Lawrence Korb, Senior Fellow at CAP; LTG Stephen Speakes, Army G-8 (Programs Director); and Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Michael Dunn, Air Force Association.
(L-R) Lt. Gen. Speakes, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Dunn, Lawrence J. Korb after panel discussion
There are numerous stories and blogs that are discussing the report and it’s recommendations. You can find blog posts here, here, and here (last link is about our interactive).
“It’s said that a nation’s budget reflects its values and its priorities.”
President-elect Barack Obama
“Given that resources are not unlimited, the dynamic of exchanging numbers for capability is perhaps reaching a point of diminishing returns. A given ship or aircraft, no matter how capable or well-equipped, can be in only one place at one time.”
Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates
I have a few theories hunches on polling this cycle…and here’s how I see the final electoral map (Montana is the only true toss-up in my opinion) OBAMA/BIDEN=326; MCCAIN/PALIN=209; UNKNOWN=3
Myles' final prediction for election night
1.) Obama is overperforming on some polls because the people who support him are proud to say “Yes, I’m voting for Obama”; McCain supporters probably are less likely to respond at all to pollsters
2.) Obama is underperforming on some polls because they don’t take in account cell-only voters. I have a detailed post on this subject on my personal blog.
3.) Obama is underperforming on some polls because they don’t contact newly registered voters and there are numerous data points that indicate the Obama campaign and Democrats have registered millions of voters across the country.
4.) The “Undecideds” are mostly McCain supporters who don’t want to admit they support McCain. Therefore, McCain’s numbers will close on election day.
5.) Obama will win any state he is currently up by +5% (and polling over 50%)
6.) Mason-Dixon is given too much credit for accurate polling
7.) Anytime a pundit says, “A democrat hasn’t won here since…” expect Obama to win that state.
Much debate has been made about Cellphone “only” people and their support for presidential candidates. Those who live in the Politics 1.0 world tend to believe themes like “Young people don’t vote…cell phone users don’t answer polling questions…cell phone people are the same as land-line users…” Some are even stuck in 2004 and claim that cellphone users and young people were supposed to support Kerry–but they didn’t.
Obama on Cellphone
Perhaps the cynics and naysayers are correct about 2004. Meanwhile, the use of cellphones and Web 2.0 has exploded and voters under 30 are far more likely to be in the Cellphone “only” crowd.
New Pew Polling showsObama leads by 20% among Cellphone “only” voters. According to the Federal Government 15% of U.S. Households are cellphone “only” as of December 2007. That number certainly has increased by now. Just think…there are more high school grads; the iPhone, Centro and other phones have made cellphones more popular and in order to save money for the new gadgets people would likely drop the landlines. Also cellphone coverage in rural areas has significantly increased in the past four years (thanks to all the “deregulators” out there!!).
The 85 million or so “millennials”—those Americans born between 1977 and 1997—are the largest generation in American history, and they’re just beginning to flex their muscle at the voting booth. In 2006, they proved decisive in the Democratic victories of Jim Webb in Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana. It’s a diverse and socially tolerant generation—one out of three millennials is nonwhite, and their views on stem-cell research and gay marriage are nearly the inverse of their conservative “greatest generation” grandparents.
Seeing that polls released on (9/23) indicate that Obama is tied in battleground Virginia, can you see now that his path to victory is a bit more clear? (especially, when you consider voter registration has increased 200,000 and cell-only voters aren’t usually polled) Bottomline: On election night, watch Virginia’s returns…if Obama wins VA, he wins the entire election.
A few interesting blog posts on this topic here, here, and here. Now do you understand why the Obama campaign used the text message to announce Senator Biden as VP choice??? This link has a detailed analysis of the Obama campaign’s text message strategy.
Heads up…I have a piece coming out soon in the Army Times “Back Talk” section…
…It should generate a good deal of feedback. I’ll share some of the comments in this blog posting.
I’ve posted about this topic before, however, I conducted a bit more research and was spurred to write because both presidential candidates spoke about the importance of military service during the recent candidates forum.
MLK speaking in front of columns...how arrogant? *snark*
Tonight is Obama’s big acceptance speech at Invesco Field in Denver. Video of stage and interview with David Plouffe here.
The naysayers are out in full force chastising his set design. Criticism here, here, and here…one more here.
To me, it is a brilliant move and clear symbolism to evoke memories of Martin Luther King, Jr. and Abraham Lincoln. The imagery communicates a message that the majority of Americans reflect on positively.
MLK delivers "I have a dream speech" in front of columns
I look forward to the speech.
What’s wrong with trying to replicate images that all American’s hold dear like that of the Lincoln Memorial? Am I the only one this makes sense too? Perhaps, it’s just that every move Sen. Obama makes is criticized because it’s new? Because it goes against conventional wisdom? Recent history will indicate the Obama team has set new lessons for all leaders–particularly in coalition building, use of new media, and branding.
Happy 45th Anniversary of the “I have a dream speech“!!! Hopefully Rita & Kevin (I don’t know them) get good seats. Here is a photo of them inside the stadium last night.
*eats crow* Yummy! And I owe my Mom a pair of shoes. She was right. Seems like she Moms always is are…
Here’s the VP choiceSENATOR JOSEPH ROBINETTE BIDEN, JR.
On June 23, 2008 Senator Biden said:
“Of course [I would say yes],” he said. “If the presidential nominee thought I could help him win — am I going to say to the first African-American candidate about to make history in the world that, ‘No, I will not help you out like you want me to’? Of course . . . I’ll say yes.”
(Posted: 8/14/08) For what it’s worth…here are my pick/hunches/guesses for Sen. Obama’s Vice President (Gov. Sebelius and Rep. Roemer are my strongest guesses):
***My only hard & fast rule for Tier I guesses is that his VP will not have voted for the Iraq War***
TIER I:
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (Kan.) (Moderate; has battled health care industry; hunts; Ohio roots; gray hair, yet youthful; “regular” wife & mother)
Gen. Wesley Clark (Decorated veteran with executive foreign policy experience; 3am experience; respected by netroots)
Gov. Brian Schweitzer (Mont.) (Popular governor; foreign policy experience–yes, you don’t have to be in the military to have foreign policy experience; will lock in Montana’s electoral college votes; pro-sportsmen; anti-FISA; netroots will love him) UPDATE: VIDEO OF GOV. SCHWEITZER‘S ADDRESS TO DNC
Fmr. Rep. Tim Roemer (Ind.) (Opposed NAFTA; serious Foreign Policy & Intelligence credentials; solidly puts Indiana in the toss-up category; Louisiana connection–hey, it’s possible Cleo Fields almost won the governorship a few years back)
TIER II:
Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (Ga.)
Fmr. Gov. Ray Mabus (Miss.)
Gov. Janet Napolitano (Az.)
Sen. Jack Reed (R.I.)
WILD CARDS (If not selected, I expect them to be key advisers or cabinet members):
NOT GONNA GET PICKED: Clinton, Bayh, Biden, Richardson, Powell, Hagel, Kaine, Webb (Webb is too important of an ally in the Senate and it would be hard for Virginia to produce a candidate to replace him)
Click here if you want to know the real answer as soon as it’s announced. Read Garrett Graff, Sensei of Social Media’s New York Times Op-Ed about Obama’s announcement technique. Follow Graff on twitter here.
Final thing to watch for the remainder of the campaign…the Rocky Mountain strategy…during the primaries much hullabaloo was made of how poorly Sen. Obama performed in Appalachia; meanwhile he was winning big in the Rockies. I project he will win MT, CO, NV, OR, WA, CA and NM in November (the old Florida/Ohio “big state” paradigm is soooo 2004)
In my opinion the “Race Card“ is a statement by a person–of any race–who directly uses race to do any of the following:
1.) Explain their poor performance or reason they haven’t achieved something on race; instead of personal actions/responsibility
2.) Accuse others of gaining a position as a result of their race, without any objective assessment of that persons talents and accomplishments
3.) Those who play the Race Card typically play the “victim” mentality
***Typically the “Race Card” is used as a distraction from real issues. e.g…the economy -or- upcoming court cases -or- Afghanistan
All this discussion about the Race Card makes me sick. But, I decided to post this because the media is redefining the proper definition of the Race Card and I must battle back for fairness from my perch in the blogosphere.
Here are few real examples of the Race Card being played:
And another example of the Race Card (Listen closely at 2:40-Very closely at 4:10) and in text.
In contrast, this is just snark and not at all the race card–except as defined by the media who know that stories about conflict drive up ratings. Surprisingly someone else brought up the dollar bill idea months ago.
Your thoughts? I know this is a minefield topic, however, it’s important that we look at things objectively and not just take the media “sound bite” version of things.
So I chose a person I admire for this Wikiscanner report. Susan Rice, PhD, foreign policy expert.
Some of you are thinking “what’s wikiscanner?” Well here’s a description from the Wikipedia entry on Wikiscanner
WikiScanner (also known as Wikipedia Scanner) is a tool created by Virgil Griffith and released on August 14, 2007,[1][2] which consists of a publicly searchable database that links millions of anonymous Wikipedia edits to the organizations where those edits apparently originated, by cross-referencing the edits with data on the owners of the associated block of IP addresses. WikiScanner does not work on edits made under a username. The Associated Press reported that Griffith wanted “to create minor public relations disasters for companies and organizations [he] dislike[s].”[3]
After randomly going through a list a people I admire (General Odierno, Gov. Sebelius, General Vince Brooks, General Petreaus, Pacman Jones, Papa Smurf), I settled on Susan Rice who I met in person in November 2007. I was curious to know what those who created her biography page on Wikipedia.
HERE ARE SOME FACTS/STATS ON SUSAN RICE’S WIKI PAGE:
Creation Date: 4 August 2005
Last Modification: 22 June 2008
# of Modifications: 80 Total
# of Modifications tracked by wikiscanner: 25 (thru 2 February 2007)
WHO IS EDITING? Perhaps as a testament to her foreign policy prowess, Susan Rice’s page has been edited by IP addresses throughout the world. Wikipedians from New York, Washington DC, Washington state, South Africa, Austria, Thailand, Texas, Colorado, Georgia, and New Mexico have made revisions to the page.
OKAY, SO WHAT WAS INTERESTING?
Well, it seems Dr. Rice began her career by working at McKinsey & Company–prior to the invention of the internet (I wonder if Chelsea Clinton has returned to her job there?). The good people at McKinsey wanted to make sure everyone knows that by adding:
“She subsequently worked as a management consultant at McKinsey & Company, the global management consulting firm.”
October 25, 2006: They also took efforts to remove controversial information about Dr. Rice’s positions and accomplishments at the State Department. Click here for controversy.
April 26, 2007: The editor from Vienna, Austria vandalized Susan Rice’s page and this was visible for over 30-days!!!
May 29, 2007: The anonymous person from Georgia deleted the salacious accusation that Susan Rice:
“Served the Fatal cup of Tea that killed the acclaimed winner of of the June 12 Nigerian Presidential election Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola .”
CONCLUSION: Using the wikiscanner on Susan Rice’s page I was able to determine that there is good & bad with an encyclopedia “anyone can edit.”
Good:
New information beyond standard press releases and corporate bios (Over time the name of Dr. Rice’s secondary school and employment history has been expanded. Those are linked internally to other wikipedia pages)
Real-time changes are made to entries (Dr. Rice’s page includes information that she is currently an adviser to Barack Obama’s campaign)
Bad:
Unscrupulous wikipedians can vandalize pages with the absolute worst of accusations that are totally baseless
Unsuspecting researchers (commonly students) can encounter vandalized entries and use them in subsequent publications. This is even more hazardous in the age of citizen journalist
READERS: If you’re interested in learning more about how wikiscanner works feel free to leave a comment. Be advised new scans are being conducted this summer. Read the Wikiscanner FAQ.
“Don’t be evil” is the cornerstone of Google’s corporate culture…and it extends beyond the company’s doors to encompass the World Wide Web…
I don’t think we should be afraid of Google. In fact, here are five things to be more afraid of day-to-day than Google:
1.) Oncoming traffic on a two-lane road. What if the teen driving towards you at 45mph decides to Google something on their smart phone and crosses over the double-yellow line. BANG!
2.) Slipping in the shower. Be careful.
3.) Bees. Have you ever Googled “Japanese Killer Hornets”??? Scary, very scary.
4.) Rats. These critters are everywhere. They are responsible for the bubonic plague and giving the heebie-jeebies to unsuspecting shoppers in the city. Scary.
5.) Brain cramp [Insert your innermost fear here]
Seriously, Google is an outstanding tool for research and communication. Google makes life easier for those who know how to effectively use it’s many features. I like the Google Maps, Earth, and Mail functions. The new street view photos have revolutionized the way people will navigate. By Christmas 2010, I imagine Garmin by Google systems that show photos of driving directions. Wouldn’t that be a nifty tool?
Anyone afraid of Google simply should limit their activity on the internet. The Googlefolks can only get information you provide–well, sorta. Bottomline: Google is here to stay and is linked to Government. In fact, we can use Google to see where our tax dollars are being spent. What’s not to like?
Posted by majorman 
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