Cellphone-only people strongly support Obama

September 24, 2008

Much debate has been made about Cellphone “only” people and their support for presidential candidates.  Those who live in the Politics 1.0 world tend to believe themes like “Young people don’t vote…cell phone users don’t answer polling questions…cell phone people are the same as land-line users…” Some are even stuck in 2004 and claim that cellphone users and young people were supposed to support Kerry–but they didn’t.

Obama on Cellphone

Obama on Cellphone

Perhaps the cynics and naysayers are correct about 2004.  Meanwhile, the use of cellphones and Web 2.0 has exploded and voters under 30 are far more likely to be in the Cellphone “only” crowd.

New Pew Polling shows Obama leads by 20% among Cellphone “only” voters. According to the Federal Government 15% of U.S. Households are cellphone “only” as of December 2007.  That number certainly has increased by now.  Just think…there are more high school grads; the iPhone, Centro and other phones have made cellphones more popular and in order to save money for the new gadgets people would likely drop the landlines.  Also cellphone coverage in rural areas has significantly increased in the past four years (thanks to all the “deregulators” out there!!).

My Social Media Sensei, Garrett Graff, has an article up this week on the influence of Millennials and the election. A passage:

The 85 million or so “millennials”—those Americans born between 1977 and 1997—are the largest generation in American history, and they’re just beginning to flex their muscle at the voting booth. In 2006, they proved decisive in the Democratic victories of Jim Webb in Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana. It’s a diverse and socially tolerant generation—one out of three millennials is nonwhite, and their views on stem-cell research and gay marriage are nearly the inverse of their conservative “greatest generation” grandparents.

Seeing that polls released on (9/23) indicate that Obama is tied in battleground Virginia, can you see now that his path to victory is a bit more clear?  (especially, when you consider voter registration has increased 200,000 and cell-only voters aren’t usually polled)  Bottomline:  On election night, watch Virginia’s returns…if Obama wins VA, he wins the entire election.

A few interesting blog posts on this topic here, here, and hereNow do you understand why the Obama campaign used the text message to announce Senator Biden as VP choice??? This link has a detailed analysis of the Obama campaign’s text message strategy.

Pew Poll on Cellphone only voters (Sep 08)

Pew Poll on Cellphone "only" voters (Sep '08)

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Obama Vice President picks

August 14, 2008

(Posted: 8/14/08) For what it’s worth…here are my pick/hunches/guesses for Sen. Obama’s Vice President (Gov. Sebelius and Rep. Roemer are my strongest guesses):

***My only hard & fast rule for Tier I guesses is that his VP will not have voted for the Iraq War***

TIER I:

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (Kan.) (Moderate; has battled health care industry; hunts; Ohio roots; gray hair, yet youthful; “regular” wife & mother)

Gen. Wesley Clark (Decorated veteran with executive foreign policy experience; 3am experience; respected by netroots)

Gov. Brian Schweitzer (Mont.) (Popular governor; foreign policy experience–yes, you don’t have to be in the military to have foreign policy experience; will lock in Montana’s electoral college votes; pro-sportsmen; anti-FISA; netroots will love him) UPDATE: VIDEO OF GOV. SCHWEITZER‘S ADDRESS TO DNC

Fmr. Rep. Tim Roemer (Ind.) (Opposed NAFTA; serious Foreign Policy & Intelligence credentials; solidly puts Indiana in the toss-up category; Louisiana connection–hey, it’s possible Cleo Fields almost won the governorship a few years back)

TIER II:

Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (Ga.)

Fmr. Gov. Ray Mabus (Miss.)

Gov. Janet Napolitano (Az.)

Sen. Jack Reed (R.I.)

WILD CARDS (If not selected, I expect them to be key advisers or cabinet members):

Gen. Richard Cody

Gen. Anthony Zinni

Fmr. Sen. Max Cleland (Ga.) He is a lobbyist.

Fmr. SecDef William Cohen (A moderate Republican)

NOT GONNA GET PICKED:  Clinton, Bayh, Biden, Richardson, Powell, Hagel, Kaine, Webb (Webb is too important of an ally in the Senate and it would be hard for Virginia to produce a candidate to replace him)

Click here if you want to know the real answer as soon as it’s announced.  Read Garrett Graff, Sensei of Social Media’s New York Times Op-Ed about Obama’s announcement technique. Follow Graff on twitter here.

Final thing to watch for the remainder of the campaign…the Rocky Mountain strategy…during the primaries much hullabaloo was made of how poorly Sen. Obama performed in Appalachia; meanwhile he was winning big in the Rockies.  I project he will win MT, CO, NV, OR, WA, CA and NM in November (the old Florida/Ohio “big state” paradigm is soooo 2004)