Obama Vice President picks

(Posted: 8/14/08) For what it’s worth…here are my pick/hunches/guesses for Sen. Obama’s Vice President (Gov. Sebelius and Rep. Roemer are my strongest guesses):

***My only hard & fast rule for Tier I guesses is that his VP will not have voted for the Iraq War***

TIER I:

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (Kan.) (Moderate; has battled health care industry; hunts; Ohio roots; gray hair, yet youthful; “regular” wife & mother)

Gen. Wesley Clark (Decorated veteran with executive foreign policy experience; 3am experience; respected by netroots)

Gov. Brian Schweitzer (Mont.) (Popular governor; foreign policy experience–yes, you don’t have to be in the military to have foreign policy experience; will lock in Montana’s electoral college votes; pro-sportsmen; anti-FISA; netroots will love him) UPDATE: VIDEO OF GOV. SCHWEITZER‘S ADDRESS TO DNC

Fmr. Rep. Tim Roemer (Ind.) (Opposed NAFTA; serious Foreign Policy & Intelligence credentials; solidly puts Indiana in the toss-up category; Louisiana connection–hey, it’s possible Cleo Fields almost won the governorship a few years back)

TIER II:

Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (Ga.)

Fmr. Gov. Ray Mabus (Miss.)

Gov. Janet Napolitano (Az.)

Sen. Jack Reed (R.I.)

WILD CARDS (If not selected, I expect them to be key advisers or cabinet members):

Gen. Richard Cody

Gen. Anthony Zinni

Fmr. Sen. Max Cleland (Ga.) He is a lobbyist.

Fmr. SecDef William Cohen (A moderate Republican)

NOT GONNA GET PICKED:  Clinton, Bayh, Biden, Richardson, Powell, Hagel, Kaine, Webb (Webb is too important of an ally in the Senate and it would be hard for Virginia to produce a candidate to replace him)

Click here if you want to know the real answer as soon as it’s announced.  Read Garrett Graff, Sensei of Social Media’s New York Times Op-Ed about Obama’s announcement technique. Follow Graff on twitter here.

Final thing to watch for the remainder of the campaign…the Rocky Mountain strategy…during the primaries much hullabaloo was made of how poorly Sen. Obama performed in Appalachia; meanwhile he was winning big in the Rockies.  I project he will win MT, CO, NV, OR, WA, CA and NM in November (the old Florida/Ohio “big state” paradigm is soooo 2004)

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15 Responses to Obama Vice President picks

  1. neiltownsend says:

    Wow, none of those two tier people really excite you, do they? I’m a big Richardson fan because of his foreign policy experience, but it doesn’t look like it’ll happen. I think having a general and an army man would definitely boost Obama’s foreign policy reputation, but Sebelius would certainly appeal to the women voters, especially Hillary Clinton supporters. Fascinating read.

  2. majorman says:

    @neiltowsend I think Gov. Richardson has a great resume. However, he would probably be walloped constantly over the energy issues. But, I like his persona. Each pick has pros/cons.

  3. ateedub says:

    The mainstream media has been making much of Bayh and Biden recently. I really hope Biden’s not the pick – he’s too much of a DC insider to help the campaign with its change agenda. I hope you’re right!

  4. Vadim says:

    There’s no way Obama would pick Richardson. As much as I like him, white people would be too intimidated by a “minority” ticket and flock even further to McCain. I predict Obama will pick a completely unremarkable centrist politician, like Bayh (not sure why you put him in the “not gonna get picked” pile).

    In any case I’m totally uninspired by Obama at this point. FISA was sort of the last straw for me, as well as the whole AIPAC speech and his support for the Death Penalty. I think since I’m in Illinois I’ll just be voting third party unless Obama retracts some of his stances: http://tinyurl.com/5w9w9v

  5. majorman says:

    @Vadim Bayh co-sponsored the Iraq War bill. I think Obama will take someone with a centrists reputation, however, they can’t have been supporters of the Iraq war or too much of a D.C. insider. Just my speculation.

    I don’t think Obama will retract his current FISA stance, but I concede it seemed like a change from his earlier stance. AIPAC…hmmm…no comment.

  6. Max Dionne says:

    Wes Clark is my pick. Get the military experience on the ticket. Unstoppable.

    Or maybe it will be this dude–he’s got a petition started: http://www.makemeyourvp.com

  7. rikyrah says:

    I like the Cowboy Govenor myself.

  8. […] Obama Vice President picks via Majorman’s Musings ***My only hard & fast rule for Tier I guesses is that his VP will not have voted for the Iraq War*** read more SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “Friday Headlines”, url: “http://www.positivelybarack.com/2008/08/15/friday-headlines-40/” }); […]

  9. Steve Merriman says:

    Hope to hear you condemn Obama for labeling the author of the anti-Obama book a “fringe bigot.” He may dislike Obama intensely but it’s not a racial thing. Can’t just grab that “bigot” word and toss it out if you don’t like somebody. Huge mistake on his part. No matter how bad the book is, calling the guy a bigot cos you don’t like him is out of bounds.

  10. lobbyist says:

    Being a lobbyist takes Max Cleland out of the race? Not that i would ever think he’d even be on the short list, but this whole anti-lobbyist stance with Obama is absolutely ridiculous!! All organizations lobby – its the position and issues of the organization from which people determine if they’re “good” or “bad.” With all the endorsements that Obama has gotten from labor unions – do you really think these organizations are throwing their support behind him without expecting that he will be an advocate for their issues? My boy Big Ticer couldn’t have said it better: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjNY8mGhxw&feature=related.

  11. majorman says:

    @Steve Merriman: I don’t condemn elected officials.

    But you can read the campaigns comments about the Corsi book here http://my.barackobama.com/page/invite/corsi

    @lobbyist: Yes there are “good” lobbyists who serve “good” causes. But, the Obama “brand” is about change in Washington and ostensibly returning power to the people.

  12. bdr4981 says:

    Isn’t Roemer pro-life?

  13. Millie O says:

    Your Tier I picks don’t bring much to the table. As for your Tier II picks – you may as well move them to the wild card list. Moms know best. Biden is the likely choice.

  14. majorman says:

    @Millie O: Biden brings 35 years of “Washington” experience. It’s hard to say you’re about “Change” when you pick up a Washington insider & career politician. Moms know best on everything except VP choices.

    The entire Obama campaign is not about “Conventional Wisdom.” The only other Wild Card I’ll add is Rep. Chet Edwards (Southern, a bit older than Obama, pro-military w/ credentials, endorsed Obama before the Texas Primary/Caucus, his district that included counties around the largest Army base Fort Hood went for Obama, Obama is only down 5% in Texas polls)

  15. The Grayheck says:

    Despite quite the dis-information campaign throughout the day (KC printing companies, loud mouth limo drivers and that mystery Chicago Tribune phone call) Obama has subtly allowed the public in on his VEEP choice:

    http://www.socoolaz.com/article.cfm?articleID=30234

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