Grassroots campaigning is like dating

January 2, 2009

Originally posted (10/22)…LONG POST (GRASSROOTS ORIENTED)…MYSTERIES OF MALE DATING BEHAVIOR REVEALED BELOW…You have to click the links to fully appreciate this posting (especially the “older people” one)

The Obama campaign is courting voters like a skillful man goes after the woman of his dreams.  Up today on Ben Smith’s blog at the Politico.com are some interesting stories about Obama’s integration of Calling, Canvassing, and emailing.  Back in Dec ’07 & Jan ’08, ten months ago, mainstream publications ran stories on the strength of Obama’s ground game (click links for articles):  Obama’s Ground Game Advantage, Inside Obama’s Iowa Ground Game, Obama’s and Huckabee’s Ground Game . Numerous other publications and bloggers have discussed the mechanical advantages of David Plouffe’s campaigning strategies.

A few months ago, I mentioned to a classmate that Obama is registering masses of voters in Virginia.  The naysayers scoff and say “new voters don’t vote…young voters don’t go to polls…they’re to lazy…”

Another groups of naysayers and pundits have asserted that the “Bradley Effect(the idea the white voters lie to pollsters about who they are supporting and will balk at pulling the lever for a black man when inside voting booth) will kick in on election day.  Turns out the pollster for the 1982 California Governors election said his polls were old. The winning candidates pollster said the election ended up how he predicted it in last minute polling. The Bradley Effect has been debunked here and here too. It doesn’t exist!

And finally there are people who say “Black people are only voting for Obama because he’s black.”  In 2004, Blacks went for Kerry 88%; In 2000, Blacks went for Gore by 90%.  Could it be that black people overwhelmingly vote Democrat?  Does the fact Obama is leading in some of the “whitests” states in America (ME, IA, VT, NH, MN, WI) and losing some of the “blackest” (MS, AL, LA, SC) mean anything?  A vote is a vote…bottomline

Back to my opening paragraph.  When a skillful guy really wants a girl he will call her; he will check in periodically to say “I’m thinking about you”; he will invite her to events she likes; he will ask her questions to get to know her better; he will have his friends and family say positive things about him as third-party endorsers; he will wear his best clothes in her presence; he will show he’s good dancer, brave & athletic; he will demonstrate his smarts; he will send her emails; he will impress her by name dropping his rich & powerful friends; he’ll show he cares by helping older people and inspiring younger people; he will demonstrate he’s a man of faith, and he will always say “baby it’s all about you“…most importantly he will repeat all of these actions until he closes the deal.  Meanwhile…the angry dude and his hatin’ friends will try to discredit the guy with scurrilous accusations, school-yard gossip, and name calling.  But the angry dude can’t get his message through because the skillful guy has sent an overwhelming amount of positive messages and has cultivated a relationship with the dream gal.  Sometimes, even in politics, nice guys finish first.

More stories on grassroots campaigning:  here, here, and here


Thinking about polling and prediction

October 28, 2008

I have a few theories hunches on polling this cycle…and here’s how I see the final electoral map (Montana is the only true toss-up in my opinion)  OBAMA/BIDEN=326; MCCAIN/PALIN=209; UNKNOWN=3

Myles' final prediction for election night

Myles' final prediction for election night

1.)  Obama is overperforming on some polls because the people who support him are proud to say “Yes, I’m voting for Obama”; McCain supporters probably are less likely to respond at all to pollsters

2.)  Obama is underperforming on some polls because they don’t take in account cell-only voters. I have a detailed post on this subject on my personal blog.

3.)  Obama is underperforming on some polls because they don’t contact newly registered voters and there are numerous data points that indicate the Obama campaign and Democrats have registered millions of voters across the country.

4.)  The “Undecideds” are mostly McCain supporters who don’t want to admit they support McCain.  Therefore, McCain’s numbers will close on election day.

5.)  Obama will win any state he is currently up by +5% (and polling over 50%)

6.)  Mason-Dixon is given too much credit for accurate polling

7.)  Anytime a pundit says, “A democrat hasn’t won here since…” expect Obama to win that state.

Make your own map at Real Clear Politics.