Cellphone-only people strongly support Obama

Much debate has been made about Cellphone “only” people and their support for presidential candidates.  Those who live in the Politics 1.0 world tend to believe themes like “Young people don’t vote…cell phone users don’t answer polling questions…cell phone people are the same as land-line users…” Some are even stuck in 2004 and claim that cellphone users and young people were supposed to support Kerry–but they didn’t.

Obama on Cellphone

Obama on Cellphone

Perhaps the cynics and naysayers are correct about 2004.  Meanwhile, the use of cellphones and Web 2.0 has exploded and voters under 30 are far more likely to be in the Cellphone “only” crowd.

New Pew Polling shows Obama leads by 20% among Cellphone “only” voters. According to the Federal Government 15% of U.S. Households are cellphone “only” as of December 2007.  That number certainly has increased by now.  Just think…there are more high school grads; the iPhone, Centro and other phones have made cellphones more popular and in order to save money for the new gadgets people would likely drop the landlines.  Also cellphone coverage in rural areas has significantly increased in the past four years (thanks to all the “deregulators” out there!!).

My Social Media Sensei, Garrett Graff, has an article up this week on the influence of Millennials and the election. A passage:

The 85 million or so “millennials”—those Americans born between 1977 and 1997—are the largest generation in American history, and they’re just beginning to flex their muscle at the voting booth. In 2006, they proved decisive in the Democratic victories of Jim Webb in Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana. It’s a diverse and socially tolerant generation—one out of three millennials is nonwhite, and their views on stem-cell research and gay marriage are nearly the inverse of their conservative “greatest generation” grandparents.

Seeing that polls released on (9/23) indicate that Obama is tied in battleground Virginia, can you see now that his path to victory is a bit more clear?  (especially, when you consider voter registration has increased 200,000 and cell-only voters aren’t usually polled)  Bottomline:  On election night, watch Virginia’s returns…if Obama wins VA, he wins the entire election.

A few interesting blog posts on this topic here, here, and hereNow do you understand why the Obama campaign used the text message to announce Senator Biden as VP choice??? This link has a detailed analysis of the Obama campaign’s text message strategy.

Pew Poll on Cellphone only voters (Sep 08)

Pew Poll on Cellphone "only" voters (Sep '08)

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14 Responses to Cellphone-only people strongly support Obama

  1. Paul says:

    avg sample of 150 people. This means something?

  2. wtf says:

    I’m under 30 and have both a cell phone and a landline. All my friends under 30 also have both cell phones and landlines. WTF does all that have to do with anything? Just more propoganda to try and invalidate traditional polling whenver its convenient.

    The Obama campaign sent out the VP announcement through text? Who even cares? WTF does that have to do with Obama’s candidacy and his ability o lead this country? Not to mention that the VP text announcement was a disaster. The media broke the story before people even got the text. Of course, noone hardly talks about that – they just focus on how “cool” the concept was supposed to have been.

  3. Kelly says:

    “Cellphone only people” are late teens and early 20′s whose parents still support them. The smart money says they won’t bother to vote, regardless of what they’re telling the pollsters now. They’ll find a good party and forget to go to the polls.

    Trust me, I know, I’ve got two of them plus I interact with their numerous “cellphone only” friends every day.

  4. Greg says:

    I love that the first poster questions the size of the study, and then two posters attempt to counter the study with meaningless anecdotal insight.

    So just to add to the conversation, I am a 30 year-old professional with only a cell. All of my friends only have cells, and we will certainly be voting on election day. So there is your smart money, Kelly–you must support this administration’s economic policies the way you throw your smart money around.

    Now maybe we can let the professional pollsters get back to what they do. If you don’t like the results, maybe you could just bury your head in the sand.

  5. No landline says:

    Why not add some more anecdotal info here? I’m mid-30s — cell only. All the friends I can think of? Cell only, with the exception of one (he needs a landline for his direct TV sports package or something like that — he has the ringer turned off and never actually answers the thing).

    And, oh yeah, I live in Virginia.

  6. Dave says:

    Im under 30 and cell only. Whats the point of a landline?

  7. AMP says:

    “Cellphone only people” are late teens and early 20’s whose parents still support them. The smart money says they won’t bother to vote, regardless of what they’re telling the pollsters now. They’ll find a good party and forget to go to the polls.

    Trust me, I know, I’ve got two of them plus I interact with their numerous “cellphone only” friends every day.

    @Kelly
    Okay, that’s your reality. Here’s mine:

    I’m 39, landline-less and pro-Obama. So are about 80% of my 30-something friends. All of them — to a person — registered & dedicated voters.

    My point is based on my own experience, and therefore as crippled by lack of data as yours is. But it does show that this is more complex than you make it out to be.

  8. Michael says:

    One more point – My mother is 78, cell phone only and will vote Obama.
    It is becoming prevelant….

  9. Najmah says:

    Late reply but I wanted to add some more VA flavor to the conversation. I am 31 (damn glad to just have made it into the right generation by the skin of my teeth); I have a land line only because I can’t get the internet package I want without Verizon (yet) in my neck of the woods. My land line stays on ‘DND’ – call all day long – you will get my answering machine – telling you to please call my cell phone – which has a nice message about sending me a text or an email if you want to get in touch with me for real. I will be one of the many, many proud O4A supporters (and voters) who will turn VA into Obama-nation come Nov. 4th. Word.

  10. Is it possible, that Obama’s lead could evaporate on election day because of Bradley-Wilder effect? Or nowadays Americans are significantly less reluctant to vote for an African-American? Vote here – http://www.votetheday.com/america/secret-racism-will-subvert-obamas-advantage-333

  11. [...] Cellphone-only people strongly support Obama [...]

  12. [...] 2.)  Obama is underperforming on some polls because they don’t take in account cell-only voters. I have a detailed post on this subject on my personal blog. [...]

  13. Karen says:

    Wonder how enthusiastic these Obama supporters will be when their taxes go up. (Is it $250K? $150K? $120K? Somebody feel free to square that circle for me. I’m sure someone here can contort these steadily changing answers into “nothing to worry about.”) Also wonder about their enthusiasm when the Fairness Doctrine limits Rush Limbaugh to an hour or so a day–you’ll be pretty pleased, I’m guessing. Right up until you get your own version of Rush Limbaugh who catches fire… then you’ll be upset. (Though I’m guessing your case will be that your guy really is “fair.”) Also wonder who’s gonna pay for universal health care… besides those of us already paying $1000 or more a month to cover our families. Who will stand up for non-union workers who are about to get forced into unions under the Check Card Act you’re set to pass? Who’s going to pay the premium when prices rise to pay for Kyoto and the industrial caps leveled by global warming legislation? I fear that the lion’s share of Obama voters are participating only in a cult of personality. I guess we’ll see, won’t we.

  14. majorman says:

    Thanks for all the comments on this topic. It’s good to see a lot of people are interested in this election.

    A few sites that may interest you:
    http://www.pollster.com
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

    And for all the various rumors that fly around (taxes, health care, etc…)
    http://www.politifact.com
    http://taxcut.barackobama.com/

    Two days until the election. Sen. Obama is holding his last campaign rally in Manassas, Virginia on Monday night. We’ll see what happens.

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